What does 2021 have in store for local politics? ALED THOMAS gazes into his crystal ball...

IF there’s anything to learn from 2020 (apart from where the mute button is) then it's not to make predictions.

But here we are, looking ahead to the next 12 months in Swindon local politics and government.

There are two massive variables which will influence how voters and councillors look back a year from now – but nobody can say for certain how both Covid-19 and Brexit will pan out this year.

Swindon has just been moved up to Tier 4 restrictions along with the majority of the rest of England, with Wales doing something similar – essentially a repeat of the national lockdown conditions which applied in March and April and May.

The UK and the EU have reached agreement on a trade deal which will allow goods to move freely between the two without tariffs but not services. How that works, and how that will affect Northern Ireland, its relationship with the rest of the UK and its southern neighbour in Ireland has yet to be seen.

How those two factors affect what we might expect is simply unknowable – so let’s put them aside and assume that some sort of normality will apply.

This year should have been a year off in Swindon Borough Council’s 'elections by thirds' system – but the cancellation of last year’s vote sees 19 seats in the 57-seat council up for grabs in May.

There are nine seats held by Conservatives, seven by Labour, plus the Rodbourne Cheney seat left empty by the death of Labour councillor Des Moffatt in late 2019, one Liberal Democrat seat – that of leader Stan Pajak – and the Haydon Wick seat of Independent Tory Oliver Donachie.

That last contest might make a difference to what currently is a Conservative majority of four.

Coun Donachie, who was a member of the Conservative cabinet until May, has turned his face firmly against fellow Haydon Wick ward councillor David Renard’s administration. He said he doesn’t expect to retain his seat in May but is hoping to field enough candidates across North Swindon to disrupt the Tory vote.

If Labour wins the vacant Rodbourne Cheney seat – and it would be a surprise if that was lost – then the party would need to take just two seats from the Conservatives for the council to be under no overall control. Coun Donachie has been explicit in his hopes for he and Coun Pajak’s Lib Dems to hold the balance of power.

It might not be hugely likely – but it is possible. While every Conservative candidate won in 2016 with handy enough margins, a couple of cabinet members up are for election this year. Brian Ford in Wroughton and Maureen Penny in Blunsdon and Highworth have both distanced themselves from their own administration’s policy of increasing housing numbers significantly in their wards.

Whether that will protect them against local feeling against the increase in numbers will be seen.

Matthew Courtliff, who is standing in Lydiard and Freshbrook, won the seat as a Labour candidate but defected in 2019. The ward had been solidly Conservative until his win, but it could be a factor.

If anything can be certain it’s that the Swindon scene will say goodbye to some well-known names. Labour members Bob Wright and Fay Howard are stepping down after 15 and 18 years respectively and Conservative Vera Tomlinson is calling it a day after 13 years.

Next year also sees some challenges for the administration, as well as plans starting to materialise.

Coun Renard will want the council t to get a grip of the situation in North Star – Seven Capital has a lease on the Oasis Centre which has just closed – and it has been due to start work on a huge snow centre for three years. Failure to have any positive movement on either, or worse both, might not help the Conservatives.

And next year we will see flagship policies such as the New Eastern Villages start to proceed for real. Work on roads will start and companies with planning permission to build parts of the 8,000-home expansion will want to get on site and start digging.

The economy always matters in politics and how Swindon’s fares after Honda packs up and leaves – before the Amazon warehouse at Symmetry Park opens and the new Zurich building at Kimmerfields is ready – will be crucial.

In a normal year, the assumption would be a town which returned two Conservative MPs 18 months previously with increased majorities is one to put firmly in the blue column.

But 2020 was anything but a regular year and it’s not looking like 2021 will be making a rapid to the old normal any time soon.