Anything can happen in elections.

It’s possible that on May 5 the Liberal Democrats find themselves with 19 seats and from a minority or coalition administration with Labour in Swindon, or even a blue/yellow alliance with the Tories.

Or perhaps the Greens and the Trades Union & Socialist Coalition have a great election and both become a force in Euclid Street.

But assuming that the local elections in Swindon are most likely to be a fight between the ruling Conservatives and labour for control of the chamber, there are a few likely battleground seats where the election might be won or lost.

As it stands Labour has 23 seats and the Conservatives 32, although another seat of the total of 57 is a former Conservative, now independent councillor Dave Martyn, and another in Wroughton is vacant but has returned a Conservative councillor regularly.

Labour therefore needs to win the seats they already hold, and flip six to get to the slenderest majority of one with 29 seats.

Jim Robbins’ party will definitely have its eyes on three seats: Old Town, Penhill & Upper Stratton and Liden, Eldene & Park South.

The Conservative candidate Nick Burns-Howell won Old Town in 2019 but is standing down. That means the inevitable name recognition and support built over four years is lost to the Conservatives. And last year Labour’s Nadine Watts held her seat with an enormous 62 per cent of the vote.

Labour lost its stronghold in Penhill & Upper Stratton in 2019, when it was struggling.

But its vote was split between its candidate Kate Linnegar and the sitting councillor Teresa Page who had won previously as a Labour councillor but was then independent. Together the ‘Labour’ vote in 2019 would have won the seat by 167 votes, but as it was split between two candidates the Conservative Oladapo Ibitoye won.

In Liden Eldene & Park South Labour find themselves trying to win the seat back from Bazil Solomon, who won it in 2019 as their candidate.

Coun Solomon won, then crossed the floor later to join the Conservatives. The Conservatives won a seat there in 2021, but last year Labour’s Janine Howarth held her seat with a very comfortable 54 per cent of the vote.

Elsewhere, seats which may have been previously safe may now be up for grabs.

The Conservative councillor for St Margaret & South Marston Robert Jandy is stepping down, again the benefits of incumbency are lost to his party. And last year Labour took a seat in a previously solid blue ward, so this fight could be crucial.

Similarly, last year Labour’s Sean Wilson took Lydiard & Freshbrook somewhat against the odds – so again, eyes from the party will turn there.

Twelve months ago, it would have seemed foolhardy to predict that the wards of Priory Vale and Haydon Wick, solidly blue, could be battlegrounds.

But, a year’s a long time in politics.

Labour took seats in both wards there last year, unseating Kate Tomlinson, the wife of North Swindon MP Justin in Priory Vale.

And if they repeat their strong showing in Haydon Wick, then it could even mean that council leader David Renard who has been in office as leader for a decade might be unseated.

Should it win all seven of the battleground seats, then Labour will have a two-seat majority – but if, and only if, it holds on to the seats it already holds now.

If it loses a seat in, say, Central ward, as it did last year, gains elsewhere may not matter.

And there are other seats of interest. In Wroughton & Wichelstowe the sitting Conservative councillor Cathy Martin suddenly quit the cabinet and the council earlier this year and a few weeks ago her ward colleague and husband Dave Martyn left the Conservative group and sits as an Independent Conservative.