Both Swindon seats in the General Election will be won by Labour, according to a new poll.

And while the only other seat with voters from the borough in it, East Wiltshire, will be held by the Conservatives, the MRP poll by More in Common projects the South Cotswolds seat which shares a border with Swindon constituencies could fall to the Liberal Democrats

MRP stands for ‘multi-level regression and post-stratification’ and it uses statistical methods to work out a projected result at the constituency level based on national polling.

In Swindon North, which has been only slightly redrawn, sitting Conservative MP Justin Tomlinson faces a fight.

And according to More in Common he may be replaced as the constituency MP by Labour challenger Will Stone.

The polling company gives the Conservatives a projected 35.2 per cent of the vote, but that is 9.4 points behind Labour’s 44.7 per cent vote share.

The Liberal Democrats are in fourth with five per cent, Reform on 10.9 per cent and the Greens on 2.9 per cent.

In Swindon South, the MRP projected from the poll sees a huge win for the Labour candidate Heidi Alexander over sitting MP Sir Robert Buckland.

The figures give the Conservatives just 29.3 per cent of the vote with Labour winning 53.7 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 4 per cent, Reform on 9.6 per cent and the Greens on 2.1 per cent.

The more rural southerly parts of the old South Swindon constituency, Wanborough, Chiseldon and Wroughton have been moved into a seat named East Wiltshire, with Conservative MP Danny Kruger hoping to be returned to parliament.

And he might be happy to learn that in the MRP poll he is projected to gain 40.9 per cent of the vote, the largest vote share of any Conservative in the county in this poll, that’s 10 points over Labour’s 30.9 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 22.1 per cent, Reform on 12.4 per cent and the Greens on 3.2 per cent.

Many people who work in Swindon will live in the new South Cotswolds constituency which includes such town and villages as Minety, Cricklade and Malmesbury as well as Cirencester in Gloucestershire.

The former North Wiltshire MP James Gray is standing for the Conservatives but the MRP poll projects his vote to be at 34.5 per cent, 10 points behind that of the Lib Dem candidate at 45.2 per cent. Labour are on 10.9 per cent, Reform on 6.2 per cent and the Greens on 1.9 per cent.

There is an incredibly tight race in Chippenham.

In the redrawn seat the polling company’s figures suggest a vote share of  37.3 per cent for Conservative Nic Puntis. That’s up against projected 36.3 per cent for Lib Dem challenger Sarah Gibson.

Labour are projected 15 per cent, Reform UK 7.7 per cent and the Greens 1.7 per cent.

Whereas in most constituencies the vote share for independent candidates and for parties other than the main five is largely irrelevant, the 1.4 per cent More in Common are projecting for the independent standing this year is more than twice the ‘winning’ margin in the prediction for Chippenham

Former Chippenham MP Michelle Donelan will be relieved that her choice to stand in Melksham & Devizes is projected to see her returned to parliament much more comfortably than if she’d stood in her old constituency.

The polling company projects her to hold the seat by 12 percentage points - 39.6 per cent over the Liberal Democrats 37 per cent, with Labour on 20 per cent, Reform on 9.8 per cent and the Greens on 2.8 per cent.

Elsewhere in the county, Dr Andrew Murrison is predicted to hold South West Wiltshire for the Conservatives.

His calculated vote share of 37.9 per cent gives him an eight per cent lead over Labour on 30 per cent, the Liberal Democrats with 17.2 per cent, Reform on 10.7 per cent and the Green on 2.9 per cent.

Salisbury is projected to return Conservative MP John Glen. He is ‘given’ 36.2 per cent of the vote with Labour on 27.5 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 20.9 per cent, Reform on 9.6 per cent and the Greens on 3.9 per cent.