After conceding four goals from set pieces in their last two matches, Swindon Town are in dire need of improvement – what has been going wrong?
After 16 games of the season, according to Opta, Swindon have conceded nine goals from set pieces (the joint second-most in the division). In the entirety of last season, when Swindon were especially poor at this under Michael Flynn, they conceded 18 in their entirety of the season. If Town keep up their current trajectory, they will concede 26 goals from set pieces this season.
Looking at it statistically, the picture is marginally if not drastically better. Swindon have given up the fourth-most shots from set pieces (70), allowed the eighth-most xG (5.76) against, and are eighth for the percentage of corners defended that lead to a shot. So, arguably they have been slightly unlucky, but the situation is rapidly deteriorating.
In the first six games of the season, Taylor Allen’s wonderful free-kick for Walsall was the only goal they had let in from a set piece in a league game. Since game seven, according to my estimations, they have conceded ten goals which are related to set pieces. Added to that, Carlisle United, Doncaster Rovers, Milton Keynes Dons, and Accrington Stanley have all been able to score against them twice when the play was stopped. A clear sign that certain teams have figured out exactly how to hurt Swindon.
I went back through every goal that Swindon have conceded across all competitions this year and found that 12 of them had either come directly or straight after a set piece. I have broken each one down to see what patterns existed.
It quickly became clear that Swindon, whether it was Jack Bycroft or Dan Barden in goal, struggle massively when teams deliver the ball into the six-yard box. Of those 12, seven were put into that area.
Ian Holloway said that he had chosen to change how Swindon defended set pieces ahead of the Accrington game, so here is what they looked to do before.
Town would have three players defending zonally inside their six-yard box and everyone else would be man-marking. In this example against MK Dons, Gavin Kilkenny has gone to protect against the short corner, Harry Smith is defending the edge of the six-yard box, and Aaron Drinan is in the near post area.
The problem with this was that another consistent theme was that Swindon were not following their runners. Against Port Vale, Swindon lined up like this, but Miguel Freckleton has been left with two players and doesn't drop as George Byers runs free into space between the zonal markers to have an easy near-post header.
Something else which consistently happened was that teams would crowd the six-yard box with bodies and the marking struggles meant somebody would be able to get free enough to win the header and score. This happened against both Carlisle and Doncaster.
This changed on Saturday, Swindon now looked to zonally defend the edge of the box, with one player on the near post, and everyone else man-marking.
Unfortunately, this highlighted the struggles with sticking with the marked player with no spare players in position to help. First, Sonny Aljofree got two clear steps on Paul Glatzel to the near post and then Farrend Rawson quickly got the wrong side of Harrison Minturn from a deep free-kick.
Ultimately, the solution may not be structural. Swindon have shown that they can be bullied from balls into their six-yard box and have consistently struggled to effectively track runners. Zonal, man, hybrid, or everyone standing on the goal line like you are playing at lunchtime, none of them stop that independently.
Holloway’s “sore foreheads” suggestion on Saturday, rudimentary as it may sound, is a necessary step to take. The side requires greater organisation created by practice and the commitment to stop teams from getting so many first contacts right in front of their goal as teams evidently smell blood.
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